Prognoza demograficzna Polski do 2050 roku ze szczególnym uwzględnieniem obszarów wiejskich

Izasław Frenkel

doi:10.53098/wir.2016.1.170/03

Authors

Izasław Frenkel Izasław Frenkel, Professor, Institute of Rural and Agricultural Development, Polish Academy of Sciences, Warsaw, Poland, ifrenkel@irwirpan.waw.pl

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.53098/wir.2016.1.170/03

Keywords:

population projection: fertility rate, life expectancy, migrations, expected changes in rural and urban population, main income source

Abstract

Abstract: The Author presents an analysis of basic assumptions and the results of the latest population projection for Poland, which has been developed by the Central Statistical Office for the period 2014-2050. The projection has been made for regions, sub-regions and poviats in division into urban and rural settlements and in a few variants depending on fertility rate, life expectancy as well as internal and external migrations. The scale of projections discussed in the article is nation-wide and focuses on urban and rural areas in the so called base scenario, i.e. the one which was assumed by experts to be the most probable for the projection period. They are followed by the Author’s estimates concerning the impact of the forecast population changes on the structure of the Polish population as relates to the main source of maintenance.