Spatial Differentiation of Demographic Change Mechanisms in Rural Areas of Poland: An Approach Based on the J.W. Webb and Rural Development Monitoring (MROW) Typologies

Abstract

This article examines the shift in the dominant mechanism of demographic change in rural areas of Poland, understood as the relationship between natural increase and net migration. The analysis covered all rural and urban-rural communes, comparing two three-year periods: 2003–2005 and 2022–2024. Types of population change were identified using J.W. Webb’s typology and then compared with the structural typology of the Rural Development Monitoring (MROW). The results indicate that the fundamental shift in the mechanism of demographic change was primarily a consequence of the widespread occurrence of natural population decline, rather than a deterioration in the net migration balance. Over the course of two decades, the proportion of communes with positive natural population growth fell from around half to one-tenth, whilst the proportion of communes with a positive net migration balance remained virtually unchanged. A comparison with the MROW typology showed that in areas dominated by agricultural functions, natural population decline is most often exacerbated by net emigration, whereas in urbanised communes, a positive net migration balance continues to mitigate its effects or enables population growth. The results confirm that a similar balance of population change may result from different demographic mechanisms, depending on the socio-economic structure of rural areas.