The Ageing of Ukraine’s Population: Demographic Trends, Social and Economic Implications
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.53098/wir.2019.3.184/06Keywords:
demographics, ageing, demographic dependency, potential support ratio, population pyramid, UkraineAbstract
The article aims to understand key demographic trends in the past 30 years in Ukraine in terms of ageing. The particular focus is on differences between urban and rural population in order to understand the possible social and economic implications of ageing. The research considers national trends and regional disparities, presenting the key demographic indicators for both. These indicators include the dynamics of population with regard to age groups, demographic dependency, average age, potential support ratio, life expectancy at birth and the changes in the age-sex structure. Analysis reveals a steady ageing trend in the past 30 years, a result of the decrease in fertility and gradual shrinking of the population group aged 0–14 (from 21.6 to 15.5 million) and the simultaneous expansion of the elderly (65+) group (from 11.7 to 16.5 million). The total fertility rate has a downward trend reaching 1.37 (compared to 1.94 in 1989) and the average age has risen to 41.3 years. While similar trends are present for both the urban and rural populations regarding the changes in age groups, and in recent years the differences have been decreasing, in case of the life expectancy at birth these differences are still present, especially for males. Depopulation trends in Ukraine are also intensified by emigration processes. As there are social and economic challenges due to demographic ageing, low life expectancy is a constraint on a further increase in pensionable age.
References
Blyumina A., Vlasenko N., Stelmah L., Chaikovskaya V. (2005). Population Ageing in Ukraine: Some Demographic, Socioeconomic, and Medicare Issues (Situational Analysis). Kiev: United Nations Population Fund, State Statistics Committee of Ukraine, Institute of Gerontology AMS of Ukraine. https://ukraine.unfpa.org/sites/default/files/pub-pdf/Population%20Ageing%20in%20Ukraine%20%282005%29%20%28EN%29.pdf [accessed: 18.08.2019].
Carone G., Eckefeldt P., Giamboni L., Laine V., Sumner S.P. (2016). Pension Reforms in the EU since the Early 2000’s: Achievements and Challenges Ahead. European Economy Discussion Papers, 42 (December 2016). Luxembourg: Publications Office of the Europe an Union, European Commission. https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/info/files/dp042_en.pdf [accessed: 06.07.2019].
NSAU (National Science Academy of Ukraine) (2014). Population of Ukraine: Imperatives of Demographic Aging. Kiev: National Science Academy of Ukraine, “M.V. Ptuchi” Institute of Demography and Social Research, United Nations Population Fund. https://www.idss.org.ua/monografii/2014_Naselennya.pdf [accessed: 03.07.2019].
Tarabukina I., Kurylo I., Krentovska O. (2011). Ukraine National Progress Report on the Regional Implementation Strategy of the Madrid International Plan of Action on Ageing 2007–2011. Kiev: Ministry of Social Policy of Ukraine. https://www.unece.org/fileadmin/DAM/pau/age/country_rpts/UKR_e_report.pdf [accessed: 18.08.2019].
UISR MHU (Ukrainian Institute for Strategic Research of the Ministry of Healthcare of Ukraine) (2018). Annual Report on the Population Health Conditions, Sanitaryepidemiological Situation and Results of Healthcare System of Ukraine in 2017. Kiev: Ukrainian Institute for Strategic Research of the Ministry of Healthcare of Ukraine. http://www.uiph.kiev.ua/dawnload/Vidavnictvo/Shchorichna%20dopovid/Щоріч-на%20доповідь.2018.pdf [accessed: 05.07.2019].
UN (United Nations) (2017). World Population Ageing (Highlights). New York: United Nations Secretariat, Department of Economic and Social Affairs. https://www.un.org/en/development/desa/population/publications/pdf/ageing/WPA2017_Highlights.pdf [accessed: 07.07.2019].
