Economic Analysis of the Determinants of Citrus Exports in South Africa Post the Era of Trade Liberalisation

Mushoni Bulagi; Tshepo Maxwell Lebepe; Jan Johannes Hlongwane

doi:10.53098/wir022023/06

Autor

Mushoni Bulagi Mushoni Bulagi, PhD, Research Specialist, Human Sciences Research Council (HSRC), Inclusive Economic Development Department, HSRC Bldg, 134 Pretorius St, Arcadia, Pretoria, 0083, South Africa https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6579-8426
Tshepo Maxwell Lebepe Tshepo Maxwell Lebepe, Bachelor of Agricultural Management Honours, Economist, University of Limpopo, Department of Agricultural Economics and Animal Production, C/O R71 Tzaneen Road and University Street Mankweng Township, Polokwane, South Africa https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5075-6509
Jan Johannes Hlongwane Jan Johannes Hlongwane, PhD, Associate Professor, University of Limpopo, Department of Agricultural Economics and Animal Production, C/O R71 Tzaneen Road and University Street Mankweng Township, Polokwane, South Africa https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6840-5811

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.53098/wir022023/06

Słowa kluczowe:

eksport, liberalizacja handlu, analiza kointegracji, owoce cytrusowe, badanie stacjonarności

Abstrakt

Celem badania była analiza uwarunkowań eksportu owoców cytrusowych z Republiki Południowej Afryki (RPA) po okresie liberalizacji handlu z wykorzystaniem danych wtórnych pochodzących z lat 1996–2018. Aby zbadać relację między eksportem owoców cytrusowych a jego determinantami w długim okresie wykorzystano model kointegracji Johansena oraz klasyczną metodę najmniejszych kwadratów (Ordinary Least Squares – OLS). Wyniki modelu kointegracji Johansena potwierdziły istnienie długookresowej równowagi między eksportem owoców cytrusowych z RPA a jego wybranymi determinantami. Z kolei analiza metodą OLS udokumentowała, że głównymi czynnikami wpływającymi na eksport owoców cytrusowych była wielkość produkcji oraz poziom cen na rynkach światowych. Inicjatywy służące zapewnieniu wzrostu produkcji oraz wspierające rozwój działalności producentów owoców cytrusowych powinny być podejmowane przez ministerstwo właściwe do spraw rolnictwa oraz przez stowarzyszenia branżowe.

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